Would you re-sign Buffalo Bills WR Gabe Davis based on these contract projections?
Everything in life represents a value proposition. That includes the decision general manager Brandon Beane and the Buffalo Bills must make about wide receiver Gabe Davis.
“What you give” is different from “what you get.” When you got out of bed this morning, you presented a value offer. Whatever you wanted to do or accomplish outside of bed was more important in that moment than being in bed. You gave up more time in bed, but you kept your job since you showed there on time and received the income that came with it. Perhaps you spent more time in bed, but you did get a shower, a decent teeth brushing, and a trip to the bookshop. I am writing this article right now.
When discussing upcoming NFL free agents, one of my least favorite questions is, “Should the (team) re-sign (player)?” The answers inevitably become a weird mix of defending everything the player does as invaluable while also condemning the player as if they aren’t already NFL rosterable. The question should never be “should the team re-sign this player.” If we outline a value proposition, we are missing one-half of it.
We know what we’re getting. We’re getting a guy who most of us have seen play meaningfully during their time with the team.
But we’re not sure what we’re providing.
How are we supposed to make decisions based on a value proposition that is partially missing?
When it comes to the Bills and pending free agent wide receiver Gabe Davis, the question isn’t whether the player is worth anything to the franchise. Davis has been a productive player who is regarded highly by his teammates, the coaching staff, and Brandon Beane. The player is unquestionably valuable. The needle to thread in those discussions is how much value there is and how much it is worth in contract dollars after accounting for opportunity cost (NFL teams operate in a restricted resource environment) and replaceability. “Would you re-sign Gabe Davis to a one-year, $4 million contract?” is likely to elicit a different answer than “Would you re-sign Gabe Davis to a four-year, $80 million contract”?
So I will ask the question in a more explicit way.
If you were Beane, would you re-sign Gabe Davis for one, many, all, or none of the contract estimates below?
Contract prediction #1: A to Z Sports
Three years: $37.5 million, $12.5 million APY, and $15 million GTD.
Contract Projection #2: Spotrac
Four years, $54.5 million, 13.6 million APY.
Contract estimate #3 | Pro Football Focus
One year, $12 million, $12 million APY, and $8 million GTD.
To provide context, these are the top current wide receiver contracts in the NFL from Over The Cap, listed by APY:
Now that we have both sides of the value proposition to discuss hypothetically, we can better answer the question, “Would you re-sign Gabe Davis?”
So, would you?
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